At 1600 GMT ( 6 pm in Barcelona) the world will know the results of the EU Bank Stress Tests. As far as I know it is the second time that these tests are made and I find it is nice to know a bit more about the bank where you put your money.
Here in Catalonia the media have been talking about these stress tests for weeks. In fact for some days it has been rumoured that CatalunyaCaixa and Unnim, two Catalan saving banks won’t pass the tests. At the same time we are told that this will happen because the rules for the tests are more strict and they do not take into account some money these caixes can get (a saving bank in Spanish is called caja and in Catalan caixa). In some way when I hear the news here I have the feeling as if the banks were in some way behind the news!
So when in some minutes we know in this part of this still beautiful Europe the results of the tests the population here will be prepared to read about some failings because we have been already told in advance. And in fact we also have been prepared for the bad news just telling us that there is no problem because the test does not take into account some elements as the provisions.
While the local media here try to soften the failings some media like the BBC mention that some people even find that the rules for the tests are still too soft and it is mentioned some Irish bank which passed the tests last year but had to be bailed out later! So it seems that in order to trust the tests it is necessary that some banks fail this time!
As far as I know the possible caixes o cajas to fail the stress tests are CatalunyaCaixa, Unnim and CAM. The bank Pastor could also fail. On the other hand caixes and cajas and banks that would pass the tests would be, among others, BANKIA, BANCA CÍVICA, LA CAIXA, IBERCAJA, SANTANDER, BBVA, SABADELL, POPULAR and BANKINTER.
When I have more news I will continue with this post. It is not only important to know the results of the stress tests but to know what will be done with the banks which fail and the reaction from the financial markets. I wonder what the three current American masters of the Universe will say. I wonder what the Mood will be …
It seems we may get a lot of information about each bank. For example, we may be able to even know the exposure of each bank to different sovereign debts. To all this you have to take into account too that the media will give it the information according to the rules of the media in each country which means that unfortunately to know what is going on in one country sometimes is better to read the news abroad too! In http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/15/european-bank-stress-tests there is an explanation about the street tests (sic).
- EU bank stress test results due (bbc.co.uk)
- EU hopes stress tests boost faith in banks (sfgate.com)
- Analysis: Mkt Angst Makes EBA Stress Tests Confidence Exercise (forexlive.com)
- RPT: Analysis: Mkt Angst Makes Stress Tests Confidence Exercise (forexlive.com)
- Watchdog to reveal stress test data (mirror.co.uk)
- EU hopes stress tests boost faith in banks (seattletimes.nwsource.com)