I am very worried that Syriza may win the Greek elections because it is obvious that Alexis Tsipras is lying when he talks about the deal of Spain.
According to Alexis Tsipras Spain got money from Europe but with the conditions attached to the Greek bailout. So, he is saying. If I am elected I won’t accept the conditions of the bailout. Spain had a bailout and it had no conditions for it.
Well, let me explain why I think he is missleading Greece:
Some days ago Spain asked for a rescue of its banks to Europe and it is true Europe accepted to lend money to Spain without the hard conditions that were asked to Greek, Irish and Portuguese. In this I agree with Alexis Tsipras. BUT HE IS LYING WHEN HE DOES NOT SAY THE FOLLOWING:
1. Europe has not put so harsh conditions to Spain because Spain has been doing what Europe has asked for months!
2. Spain, in contrast with Greece, STILL CAN FINANCE ITS DEBTS! So it has non sense that Europe asks the same to Spain than to Greece. Greece has the international markets closed so it is SEurope which has to send all the money to Greece. On the other hand Spain only asks money for its banks! No for paying pensions, etc. Spain is not fully intervened (yet …) so that the conditions cannot be the same.
3. If you compare the GDP of Greece and Spain and its population you will see that Europe is lending much more money per capita to Greece than to Spain. So the conditions cannot be the same!
4. In Spain we had a real estate buble. In Greece you just cheated Europe!
In summary it is crazy to imagine that Greek will have a better deal because Spain has had a better deal! In fact what will happen, I am afraid is that quite soon in Spain we won’t be able to sell our bonds so that we will need a full intervention from Europe! And you can be sure that if we have a full intervention then the conditions will be very very harsh. In any case, when Spain needs a full intervention, maybe just next week, you can be sure that Greece will be heading out of the eurozone if Syriza has been the winner.
And let me end by one suspicious thought! I have the feeling that Europe wants Greece out of the euro. I think a lot of Europeans are fed up of Greek tragedies so they want Greece to leave the euro. So, maybe they have given to Spain this bailout lite so that the Greek just vote Syriza! So, the people in Greeece that vote Syriza thinking that they are defying Angela Merkel they may think twince! In fact maybe a lot of people in Europe want Syriza to win! In this way we have the perfect excuse to get rid of Greece!
If you do not believe what I say just look to the news in the following days! I am sure that after the Greek elections the conditions for Spain are going to get very hard indeed! And even a full bailout may be needed!
So I think that Greek should be wise and see that the Spanish soft rescue in fact it is a hoax so that Greek vote Syriza!
People in Europe only want Greek if Greece pays back. If not Europe does not want Greece.
People in Portugal or Ireland seem not to be angry about the Spanish bailout because its top politicians maybe know that all has been a deal so that Syriza wins. They may know that after Syriza wins Spain will get a full intervention. And if Spain does not get a full intervention that would mean that the fourth largest economy of the eurozone is not so weak so that this is good news for the eurozone and for them too!
As I am almost sure that Spain will need too a full intervention I do not want Greece to be out of the euro just because top politicians in Europe have prepared a hoax to the Greek. I think that the Greek should resist! Show to the world that you can be very good at cheating to the rest of Europe but that at the same time you are serious and you pay your debts.
If Greece gives confidence to Europe I am sure that Europe will know how to help Greek people. If Greek just show defiance I think Europe will put Greece out of the euro.
This Sunday I think so it is the last opportunity for the Greek to stay in the eurozone. I just hpe that Syriza does not win. In any case, if it wins, I just wish Greece luck outside the euro. It is going to be very hard to be ouside the euro but if this is the decision of Greek voters I should accept it. Unfortunately I am afraid that Syriza, if it is in power and with Greece out of the euro won’t be able to rule Greece for long so that news elections will be needed. But then it would be too late to return to the eurozone.