I have been writing posts where I say that Greece just must pay its debts and that a victory of Syriza may be the start of the end of the euro and so of the eurozone and in some way of the project behind the European Union. I have written all the reasons why I supposedly do not support Syriza …
… but this morning … as I was having a shower … for one moment I realised that there is a part of me that maybe in fact is in favour of Syriza!
So it is as if my head tells me absolutely that Syriza is the worst choice for Europe ad at the same time my heart seems to like Syriza! Is not that crazy?
So let speak to my heart and say why it likes Syriza even if my head does not wish its victory:
My heart says: If we follow what the markets want then it is obvious what they want: the eurozone ruled from Berlin. We may like that or not but it is quite reasonable. If you have invested, for example, in Spain and you want to get your money back, you may feel more sure if Berlin is controlling Spain!
See for example the problem with the bailout to Spain. Now the risk premium of Spain bonds is very high. One of the reasons is because if Spain defaults investors who buy European bonds for bailouts (ESM bonds) have preference to investors with just Spanish bonds! So, it is obvious that markets prefer the ESM bonds than just Spanish bonds. That means that Spain, in the end, will need a bailout because no Spanish bonds will be sold.
Why I say that? I say that because we have a system that makes that the markets are the ones that end choosing who should rule our economies!
So the markets prefer a eurozone under control from Berlin.
So, Syriza seems to me the only important force in Europe opposing this! It is the voice of the people against the voice of the markets!
Imagine Syriza wins. Then two things can happen. Greece remains in the euro. This would be a victory for Syriza because it would mean that a new deal was reached. The other possibility – and the reason why my head opposes Syriza! – is that Greece goes out of the euro. This would be like a tsunami for Greece but also for Europe and in fact for the planet! One Greece was out of the euro the Greek would find in such a terrible situation. They would have left the rest of the eurozone in total chaos so that no help would come from the eurozone or the European Union. Greel people would then find that the hard conditions of the bailout would have disappeared as they wanted but at the same time they would find themselves isolated and without money to run the country. It would be much much more terrible that the current situation! And it would create almost a war inside Greece because Greek who had not voted for Syriza would get crazy that because of Syriza their country would be outside the euro.
So, you see my head clearly tells me that Syriza could mean total disaster for Greece and Europe.
But on the other hand, if Greece just do not show opposition to be ruled from Berlin as the markets want then I feel that my heart feels very angry. In some way I have the feeling as if the Greek people had been hijacked between Angela Merkel and Cristine Lagarde!
It is as Greece was given the choice from Europe to choose only between drinking VINEGAR or dying of thirst! I almost have the feeling as if the Greek were asked to drink vinegar for having cheated Europe. And if they don’t want vinegar then you let them die of thirst!
So, I must admit it, although me head does not support Syriza my heart understands Syriza.
In any case I think the real danger is that if today Syriza wins in Greece this could mean that in the future the far right could win in Germany. That is what makes me really afraid. Germany is not a perfect land and if peripheral Europe asks too much for German taxpayer then we may have the problen in Berlin.
Because it is very nice to say that Greek bailout conditions are too hard and that they must be modified but this means that German tax payer will have to pay. AND IN THIS CASE I AM WITH THE GERMANS! THE GERMANS SHOULD NOT PAY FOR A COUNTRY THAT JUST CHEATED EUROPE!